Making predictions is easy. Making predictions that still hold up a year later—not so much. With that in mind, we present our list of prognostications about the luxury watch trade in the new year. Coming off a challenging year for business, with more uncertainty in the cards, many established brands are likely to double down on their hero timepieces and pull the plug on anything even remotely experimental. While that doesn’t bode well for innovation, the industry is now much more conducive to risk-taking independent makers, for whom anything goes.
How it all shakes out in the end is a matter of personal faith. For what it’s worth, our bets are on the indies.
Let the anniversary celebrations begin!
Rolex will mark two anniversaries in 2025: the 80th anniversary of the Datejust and the 70th anniversary of the GMT-Master. Vacheron Constantin will turn 270 years old, and Audemars Piguet will celebrate its sesquicentennial. Historically, Swiss watchmakers have honored their milestones in two ways: extra special product releases and fun, fabulous parties. Even as the market stabilizes in the wake of the volatility brought on by the pandemic, expect to see fireworks around these special occasions.
Back side of a Breguet Classique Hora Mundi watch 5717, price on request
Vintage lovers get nostalgic for the 1990s.
Groovy shaped watches, like the asymmetrical timepieces Gilbert Albert designed for Patek Philippe in the 1950s and ’60s, had a huge moment in 2024, as buyers tired of the steel sport watch aesthetic that dominated the past decade and embraced funkier shaped styles that spoke to their individuality.
As the new year unfolds, buyers—and the dealers who supply them—are poised to move on to another category ripe for the picking: the 1990s, when brands like Breguet and watchmakers such as Daniel Roth helped the Swiss industry find its footing after the ravages of the 1970s quartz crisis. Round, traditional and designed according to the most classic of codes, timepieces from this era, collectively described as “neo-vintage watches” because they’re neither modern nor vintage, remain a relatively good bargain—for now.
Top and above: Rolex Deepsea Oyster, 44 mm, yellow gold (Reference 136668LB), $54,200
Watchmakers react to the rising cost of gold.
With the price of gold expected to breach the $3,000-per-ounce barrier in the new year, brands, such as Breitling, that promote themselves as purveyors of accessible luxury are likely to produce fewer pieces in the costly metal, focusing instead on sporty, affordable materials like steel and titanium.
Meanwhile, brands at the top of the watchmaking pyramid—Rolex and Patek Philippe, for example—may lean into gold’s luxury reputation, turning out collections that draw attention to their use of the yellow metal, price be damned. That said, don’t be surprised to see more luxury models encased in platinum, the rare, precious metal that’s now a veritable bargain, at least in comparison.
Hublot Spirit of Big Bang Sang Bleu (All Black Pave), $47,100
Collaborations get even more creative
For nearly a decade, Swiss watchmakers have made collaborations a cornerstone of their marketing strategies, teaming with artists, DJs, athletes, even other watch brands to produce timepieces built on the principles of gestalt: 1+1=3.
While those kinds of partnerships will continue, there are signs that fatigue with garden-variety watch collaborations is setting in. To transcend the sense that watchmaking collabs have become clichéd, some brands will look to reinvent them by finding unexpected partners, including brands in adjacent, or not-so-adjacent, industries.
MB&F watch, price on request
The independent watchmaking scene matures.
Two decades ago, Maximilian Büsser founded MB&F, an independent watch brand that shocked traditionalists for its avant-garde approach to watch design and collaborative style of manufacturing.
“For the first 10 years, there was never any talk of legacy and succession because we were in survival mode,” Büsser told Gem + Jewel in August. “I was 38 when I created the company. The next five to six years, between 2015 and 2020, it was the grind. And then 2020, on the 17th of March, lockdown happened. And I thought, ‘This is finished. Who’s ever going to buy a watch again?’ As you know, the contrary happened. Suddenly everybody started to want our pieces and also those of other independents. That was a turning point in my life. I started thinking, what would happen to MB&F if something happened to me?”
The experience made Büsser receptive to an offer from Chanel, which, in late August, announced that it had taken a minority stake in the brand. Meanwhile, Büsser’s cohorts on the indie scene—talented horologists such as Rexhep Rexhepi—are also being courted by the big groups. It all highlights a sea change on the watchmaking landscape, as independent makers with innovative ideas increasingly give the deep-pocketed group-owned brands a run for their money.
